CHL 97-98 - Season Predictions... or Power Rankings...
Oct 21, 2020 22:38:57 GMT -5
Ottawa Senators likes this
Post by xx - Former Calgary Flames on Oct 21, 2020 22:38:57 GMT -5
1. Kamloops Blazers
Considering that they're the only team that won more than 7 games in the preseason, and kept an absurdly low amount of goals out of the net (38! 18 less than the second least!), Kamloops is far and above the top team coming into the regular season. Let's also acknowledge the state of the top six that performed, all at over a point per game pace. Leading the way wasn't your typical suspects, but with David Legwand and Nik Hagman, both with 21 points.
We also have to acknowledge the play of Roman Cechmanek, but with a double edged sword. He led the CHL starting goaltending in save percentage, goals against, and obviously wins. However, you have to think that seeing just shy of 20 shots per game isn't really a true showing of Cechmanek's real play. Now, that can be credited to either the stout defensive play of the Blazers, or the fact that Kamloops just doesn't see that many shots from teams. So, that could leave a few to say that his play can't sustain in a 60+ game regular season. But, as of now, the Blazers are red hot coming into first puck drop.
2. Sudbury Wolves
Steven Reinprecht. Who would have guessed this guy would lead the preseason in points? It might be due to the fact he was possibly lined up with Alex Frolov and Brad Richards, but that shouldn't discredit his play. Having the ability to score almost 2 points per game is something that NHL scouts love to see, no matter what. But we shouldn't ignore the 19 point preseasons of Frolov or Richards, either. That line is very potent at this moment, and they're fun to watch.
What could be their crutch in the regular season is the goaltending and defense. Sudbury finished in the bottom half in goals against, and Craig Anderson was in the middle of the pack in all goaltending stats - to some a pedestrian set of numbers. However, he faced the 2nd most shots amongst goaltenders, seeing around 29 shots a game. Could this be a regular occurance for Anderson?
3. Barrie Colts
So far, the teams are lining up just like in the preseason standings, but Barrie is the first team that you could argue that they could be lower in the standings by the time this comes out. However, the defense finished 4th in goals against, and the play of Martin Havlat and Mike Fisher keeps them up for me. What boosts them above others is the surprising play of Alex Khavanov, who is seen by many as 'just another defenseman'. He finished with 13 points in the preseason, which is probably twice as much as people thought he'd have at this point.
Andrew Raycroft is another one of the goaltenders who are looking a little pedestrian in comparison to other goalies, but has had enough support to post some decent numbers. Hell, he's stolen a few games himself, and had 2 shutouts. His save percentage is amongst the bottom, but his goals against average is amongst the top of starting goalies, so we can't really gauge how things will shape up for Raycroft. But, if he keeps those numbers at bay, and Barrie continues to get surprising play from lesser known names, then Barrie is in good shape to finish in the top half of the standings.
4. Baie-Comeau Drakkar
Again, shaping up just like in the preseason standings. What stood out for me in Baie-Comeau is the balance of scoring from the main core. There were nine different players with 10 or more points from the preseason, and it came from usual suspects like Zetterberg and Rafalski. But, it also came from unusual suspects like Mike Rupp and Derryk Engelland, two guys who aren't synonymous with the term 'point producer'. Another chilling statistic is Zetterberg's 23 penalty minutes, a team high. Is this a more gritty and tenacious Zetterberg than in real life? Only time will tell on that one.
However, for Baie-Comeau to succeed, they need to support Ryan Miller. He has done a decent enough job in net to start the preseason, and perhaps has shaken off the rust, but with a name like Ryan Miller, possibly the second best goaltender in the pool of goalies, having middle of the pack numbers isn't what you want from your elite goaltender. Something needs to be done there from that front. Support Miller, and the team will do just fine, and find themselves coasting easy through the regular season.
5. Saskatoon Blades
Now, hold on a second, you might say. Saskatoon had the worst offense in the preseason, why are they fifth in the standings prediction? Is it because you control the team, you fucking homer?!?
No, it's not that. Yes, I'll admit, Saskatoon's offense is rather atrocious. I'd honestly like to see the advanced statistics, and see if it's a lack of shot output, or just line chemistry woes on that front. However, who is performing are the guys you expect to. Gagne, Comrie and Lombardi all have point per game or close to rates coming out of them. Also, there's some general consistent output from the whole team, with seven players themselves hitting double digits in points. It also seems that they are a lesser penalized team in the league, which means more opportunity for even strength, or even power play opportunities.
There's two reasons Saskatoon is placed higher than the rest of the pack - defense and Henrik Lundqvist. The defense has been very good in the preseason, allowing just the second least goals in the preseason, and that is in part with the defensive core that has been placed on the team, with defensively sound players. Now, Frank Kaberle has been probably the underperforming one so far, but we'll see how the season progresses to see if he picks up his step.
The case for Lundqvist being the elite of elite goalies in the bunch is in sample form here, but there's a lot to like from him so far. 2nd amongst starters in GAA and 3rd in save percentage shows he's pretty good. But, Saskatoon needs him to be elite, and post those elite numbers. If the offense can't click this season, Lundqvist will have to test the waters on his own and see if he can sink or swim in key moments.
6. Rouyn-Noranda Huskies
Rouyn-Noranda, to me, seemed at first to be the bottom team for me. Seeing them have a .500 preseason kinda gave me a feel that they're at least a little bit better than that. Seeing Henrik Sedin work his magic is very encouraging, but seeing Daniel kinda slip a little, as well as their negative +/- is not. Seeing Manny Malholtra lead the team in points is very promising. Seeing Niklas Kronwall with just 6 points isn't. There's positives coming out of this preseason for the Huskies, but they have just as many negatives on the offensive side.
The defense is where they lose me a bit. They allow close to 5 goals a game, in a league where 5 goals should be the number to win you games. It needs to be shored up a bit. Bring that per game down 1 goal, and they'd be a great team. What isn't helping either is Rick DiPietro's play. There's been some games where he's looked outright awful, however there can be a case where he's just seeing too much action, facing roughly 30 shots a night. But, he'll still need to pick it up if Rouyn-Noranda wants to get any headway at the Barrie's, and the Kamloops'. I believe a slight fix, and mix of the lineups could do that. They have the talent up front, they just need to perform.
7. Sarnia Sting
Now, 3-10-1 isn't a superb record - in fact, it's the worst of the group. There's a very strong case just to plop them right in the last spot and say 'yeah, I don't think they'll do any better come regular season'. But, here's the case from me that they won't be the worst team;
The first line on Sarnia looks Fan-freaking-tastic. Ribiero, Datsyuk and Tanguay seem to do well together, and they seem to be the line to beat in the CHL. Now, the rest of the field needs to pick things up (I'm looking at you, goalless Brian Gionta), but if that first line can stay dominant, they will absolutely steal games from you, and bump the Sting into the standings.
What also keeps me optimistic about them is the performance coming from Ilya Bryzgalov. The numbers coming out of the preseason from him are some encouraging things to see. 3rd in starters for save percentage, and 2nd in goals against average. It's numbers we probably wouldn't have expected coming from one of the last #1 goalies to be selected. Sarnia has the defense and the goaltending, given if Bryzgalov stays as good as he has been in the preseason, which has Sarnia eek past the last team to be mentioned in the CHL.
8. Toronto St. Michaels Majors
Yes, yes. It wasn't as bad of a preseason as Sarnia for Toronto, finishing 5-9 across the 14 game span to 'feel things out'. However, one player has me very concerned about how things will go for them.
Antero Nittymakki.
I mean, he was atrocious this preseason. Dead last in every statistic you can think of. The only starting goaltender that finished the preseason with a goals against average over 5. He was flirting with a sub-.800 save percentage as well. It's not numbers you want from your regular starter. This gives a heavy case for Jason LaBarbera to start opening night over him. What also doesn't help things is the disappointing play of Martin St. Louis, who only finished with 6 points. I'm sorry, but you can't have a successful team being carried by 14 points of Andy McDonald and Lubomir Visnovsky (although that's very good to see in a defenseman, and in McDonald). They need St. Louis and Scott Gomez (8 points for him) to step up and bury some shots for them to succeed. Otherwise, that 5-9 record will blossom into something worse for them down the road. You can't allow 5.3 goals a contest. Until you can show me otherwise, the basement you go.
Considering that they're the only team that won more than 7 games in the preseason, and kept an absurdly low amount of goals out of the net (38! 18 less than the second least!), Kamloops is far and above the top team coming into the regular season. Let's also acknowledge the state of the top six that performed, all at over a point per game pace. Leading the way wasn't your typical suspects, but with David Legwand and Nik Hagman, both with 21 points.
We also have to acknowledge the play of Roman Cechmanek, but with a double edged sword. He led the CHL starting goaltending in save percentage, goals against, and obviously wins. However, you have to think that seeing just shy of 20 shots per game isn't really a true showing of Cechmanek's real play. Now, that can be credited to either the stout defensive play of the Blazers, or the fact that Kamloops just doesn't see that many shots from teams. So, that could leave a few to say that his play can't sustain in a 60+ game regular season. But, as of now, the Blazers are red hot coming into first puck drop.
2. Sudbury Wolves
Steven Reinprecht. Who would have guessed this guy would lead the preseason in points? It might be due to the fact he was possibly lined up with Alex Frolov and Brad Richards, but that shouldn't discredit his play. Having the ability to score almost 2 points per game is something that NHL scouts love to see, no matter what. But we shouldn't ignore the 19 point preseasons of Frolov or Richards, either. That line is very potent at this moment, and they're fun to watch.
What could be their crutch in the regular season is the goaltending and defense. Sudbury finished in the bottom half in goals against, and Craig Anderson was in the middle of the pack in all goaltending stats - to some a pedestrian set of numbers. However, he faced the 2nd most shots amongst goaltenders, seeing around 29 shots a game. Could this be a regular occurance for Anderson?
3. Barrie Colts
So far, the teams are lining up just like in the preseason standings, but Barrie is the first team that you could argue that they could be lower in the standings by the time this comes out. However, the defense finished 4th in goals against, and the play of Martin Havlat and Mike Fisher keeps them up for me. What boosts them above others is the surprising play of Alex Khavanov, who is seen by many as 'just another defenseman'. He finished with 13 points in the preseason, which is probably twice as much as people thought he'd have at this point.
Andrew Raycroft is another one of the goaltenders who are looking a little pedestrian in comparison to other goalies, but has had enough support to post some decent numbers. Hell, he's stolen a few games himself, and had 2 shutouts. His save percentage is amongst the bottom, but his goals against average is amongst the top of starting goalies, so we can't really gauge how things will shape up for Raycroft. But, if he keeps those numbers at bay, and Barrie continues to get surprising play from lesser known names, then Barrie is in good shape to finish in the top half of the standings.
4. Baie-Comeau Drakkar
Again, shaping up just like in the preseason standings. What stood out for me in Baie-Comeau is the balance of scoring from the main core. There were nine different players with 10 or more points from the preseason, and it came from usual suspects like Zetterberg and Rafalski. But, it also came from unusual suspects like Mike Rupp and Derryk Engelland, two guys who aren't synonymous with the term 'point producer'. Another chilling statistic is Zetterberg's 23 penalty minutes, a team high. Is this a more gritty and tenacious Zetterberg than in real life? Only time will tell on that one.
However, for Baie-Comeau to succeed, they need to support Ryan Miller. He has done a decent enough job in net to start the preseason, and perhaps has shaken off the rust, but with a name like Ryan Miller, possibly the second best goaltender in the pool of goalies, having middle of the pack numbers isn't what you want from your elite goaltender. Something needs to be done there from that front. Support Miller, and the team will do just fine, and find themselves coasting easy through the regular season.
5. Saskatoon Blades
Now, hold on a second, you might say. Saskatoon had the worst offense in the preseason, why are they fifth in the standings prediction? Is it because you control the team, you fucking homer?!?
No, it's not that. Yes, I'll admit, Saskatoon's offense is rather atrocious. I'd honestly like to see the advanced statistics, and see if it's a lack of shot output, or just line chemistry woes on that front. However, who is performing are the guys you expect to. Gagne, Comrie and Lombardi all have point per game or close to rates coming out of them. Also, there's some general consistent output from the whole team, with seven players themselves hitting double digits in points. It also seems that they are a lesser penalized team in the league, which means more opportunity for even strength, or even power play opportunities.
There's two reasons Saskatoon is placed higher than the rest of the pack - defense and Henrik Lundqvist. The defense has been very good in the preseason, allowing just the second least goals in the preseason, and that is in part with the defensive core that has been placed on the team, with defensively sound players. Now, Frank Kaberle has been probably the underperforming one so far, but we'll see how the season progresses to see if he picks up his step.
The case for Lundqvist being the elite of elite goalies in the bunch is in sample form here, but there's a lot to like from him so far. 2nd amongst starters in GAA and 3rd in save percentage shows he's pretty good. But, Saskatoon needs him to be elite, and post those elite numbers. If the offense can't click this season, Lundqvist will have to test the waters on his own and see if he can sink or swim in key moments.
6. Rouyn-Noranda Huskies
Rouyn-Noranda, to me, seemed at first to be the bottom team for me. Seeing them have a .500 preseason kinda gave me a feel that they're at least a little bit better than that. Seeing Henrik Sedin work his magic is very encouraging, but seeing Daniel kinda slip a little, as well as their negative +/- is not. Seeing Manny Malholtra lead the team in points is very promising. Seeing Niklas Kronwall with just 6 points isn't. There's positives coming out of this preseason for the Huskies, but they have just as many negatives on the offensive side.
The defense is where they lose me a bit. They allow close to 5 goals a game, in a league where 5 goals should be the number to win you games. It needs to be shored up a bit. Bring that per game down 1 goal, and they'd be a great team. What isn't helping either is Rick DiPietro's play. There's been some games where he's looked outright awful, however there can be a case where he's just seeing too much action, facing roughly 30 shots a night. But, he'll still need to pick it up if Rouyn-Noranda wants to get any headway at the Barrie's, and the Kamloops'. I believe a slight fix, and mix of the lineups could do that. They have the talent up front, they just need to perform.
7. Sarnia Sting
Now, 3-10-1 isn't a superb record - in fact, it's the worst of the group. There's a very strong case just to plop them right in the last spot and say 'yeah, I don't think they'll do any better come regular season'. But, here's the case from me that they won't be the worst team;
The first line on Sarnia looks Fan-freaking-tastic. Ribiero, Datsyuk and Tanguay seem to do well together, and they seem to be the line to beat in the CHL. Now, the rest of the field needs to pick things up (I'm looking at you, goalless Brian Gionta), but if that first line can stay dominant, they will absolutely steal games from you, and bump the Sting into the standings.
What also keeps me optimistic about them is the performance coming from Ilya Bryzgalov. The numbers coming out of the preseason from him are some encouraging things to see. 3rd in starters for save percentage, and 2nd in goals against average. It's numbers we probably wouldn't have expected coming from one of the last #1 goalies to be selected. Sarnia has the defense and the goaltending, given if Bryzgalov stays as good as he has been in the preseason, which has Sarnia eek past the last team to be mentioned in the CHL.
8. Toronto St. Michaels Majors
Yes, yes. It wasn't as bad of a preseason as Sarnia for Toronto, finishing 5-9 across the 14 game span to 'feel things out'. However, one player has me very concerned about how things will go for them.
Antero Nittymakki.
I mean, he was atrocious this preseason. Dead last in every statistic you can think of. The only starting goaltender that finished the preseason with a goals against average over 5. He was flirting with a sub-.800 save percentage as well. It's not numbers you want from your regular starter. This gives a heavy case for Jason LaBarbera to start opening night over him. What also doesn't help things is the disappointing play of Martin St. Louis, who only finished with 6 points. I'm sorry, but you can't have a successful team being carried by 14 points of Andy McDonald and Lubomir Visnovsky (although that's very good to see in a defenseman, and in McDonald). They need St. Louis and Scott Gomez (8 points for him) to step up and bury some shots for them to succeed. Otherwise, that 5-9 record will blossom into something worse for them down the road. You can't allow 5.3 goals a contest. Until you can show me otherwise, the basement you go.
